Consider This— Can Juan Soto Live Up to The Contract?

For a number of years, it was well known that when Juan Soto were to sign his next contract, it was going to be massive. People thought he’d sign for $500 Million, maybe even $600M. In reality, no one was close. This past December, the New York Mets made that prognostication a reality when they signed Soto to a 15-year, $765 Million deal to outbid the cross-town rival Yankees.

It was by far the largest financial commitment by any baseball team to any player in history. Having said that, Soto is a unique talent. At just 26 years of age, there’s no reason to think that he won’t age well over the term of this contract. It’s certainly a lot of money, but if any player has the ability to make that investment pay off, it’s Soto.

However, that brings up a really interesting point of discussion. What exactly would the next 15 years have to produce for the Mets, and Mets fans, to feel that the money was well spent? Is there anything that’s a realistic outcome where Soto would have lived up to the contract?

Let’s look at other sizable deals as a comparison.

Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 Million deal prior to last season. The vast majority of that money is deferred long into the future, as Consider This discussed a few weeks ago.

From a success standpoint, the Dodgers just won the World Series and continue to be a destination spot for other Japanese stars due to Ohtani’s presence.

Aaron Judge signed a 9-year, $360 Million extension with the Yankees prior to the 2023 season. His 62 home runs in 2022 certainly helped add some dollars to the Yankees’ offer.

Since signing the extension, Judge has launched 95 home runs over 264 games across two seasons. The Yankees returned to the World Series last year for the first time since defeating the Phillies in 2009. Age may be a concern here, as Judge will be in a Yankee uniform until age 40. Can he keep his power? Time will tell.

Speaking of the Phillies, Philadelphia also went big game hunting when they signed Bryce Harper to a 13-year, $330 Million deal prior to the 2019 season. Harper has cemented himself as the face of the team, but the team has started to see diminishing returns. After Harper was the engine that pushed the 2022 Phillies to a World Series appearance, the team has ended up a round progressively shorter each season. The 2023 Phillies lost the NLCS to the Diamondbacks, and the 2024 Phillies lost the NLDS to the Mets. Does that trend continue?

For Soto, and the Mets, does there need to be a parade, or two, or more? Is there anything Soto can do to justify that massive financial commitment? For what it’s worth, Soto hit a home run in his first spring training at-bat. Does that matter? No, but you can’t ask for a better start.

New York, despite having eight teams in the four major sports, has not raised a trophy since the Giants won Super Bowl XLVI in 2011. Can Soto be the impetus for that to change? He came close as a Yankee in 2024, but this isn’t horseshoes, and one team wins.

Juan Soto has a lot riding on his back for the Mets. If things don’t get off to a good start, the radio waves in Queens will not be kind.

Brian Attard is a lifelong resident of Hammonton, avid sports fan and host on The Sports Box Network (@SportsBoxSports on all social media platforms).